Professor Pete Shirlow
The results of a Northern Ireland public opinion survey led by the University of Liverpool’s Institute of Irish Studies shows no movement towards constitutional change, with a majority wishing to remain in the UK.
Based on a sample of 1,534 electors aged 18 and over, the findings point to a society that is becoming more reconciled and increasingly comfortable with intercommunity engagement.
The survey, led by Professor Pete Shirlow, was published in yesterday’s Sunday Times (7 June), alongside opinion pieces by Professor Shirlow on constitutional attitudes and by Dr Sean Haughey on public support for reforming Stormont.
- What do the predicted vote shares tell us?
The Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) (+2), Ulster Unionist Party (+2) and Greens (+4) are the only parties that have a growth in predicted vote share when compared to the Assembly election in 2022. The Executive parties, other than the UUP, have experienced decline (Sinn Fein -3, Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) -2 and Alliance -1). - Are we entering Border Poll territory?
In short, no. A referendum will only be called based on election results. Since 1998, support for Irish unity has stayed largely unchanged, despite a decline in support for pro-union parties, and there is no sign that it is close to reaching the 50%+1 threshold needed. The survey shows a small decrease in support within the pro-unity bloc, rather than the significant growth needed to reach that target. - The Executive and Assembly: No appetite for collapse?
Whilst accepting the reason for collapse could change opinions, the researchers found a 40% gap between those who stated that they would not vote for a party that led to suspension of the Assembly and those who would. - Further evidence of a more reconciled society
75% of those surveyed stated that the ‘other’ side was harmed during the Troubles. The vast majority agree that politicians could do more to build reconciliation and only 14% believe murals that depict violence are helpful in a shared society. There is an obvious need for the political parties to reflect upon inter-community consensus and therefore develop more reconciliatory actions and language.Nearly 80% have friendship across the divide and the majority are involved in constructive inter-community activities.
Professor Pete Shirlow, Director of the Institute of Irish Studies who led the survey work said: “Yet again we do not find any movement or indeed acceleration towards constitutional change. Instead, we find a majority wishing to remain in the UK. We also locate a society that is more reconciled and coming to terms with more intercommunity engagement. Nearly 30 years post Good Friday Agreement we have a society that is turning to non-constitutional issues and one in which most people have constructive relationships across the divide. Unfortunately, the media has failed to report such change, favouring instead to emphasise any remaining signs of friction between communities.”
The survey was conducted using an online panel methodology with the data weighted (i.e. gender, age, SEG, local government district and religion) to be representative of the N Ireland electorate. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.5% at the 95% Confidence Level. Fieldwork was undertaken between 8 and 22 May 2026. The survey was undertaken by Social Market Research (SMR) on behalf of the Institute of Irish Studies at the University of Liverpool.
Click here to see full results Northern Ireland Surveys | Institute of Irish Studies | University of Liverpool