Dr Stuart Wilks-Heeg is a Senior Lecturer in Politics and Head of Politics at the University of Liverpool
“Yesterday’s by-election results are virtually impossible to spin for either the Conservatives or Labour. Predictably, each side of Britain’s crumbling two-party divide has attempted to paint the results as worse for the other.
But the simple truth is, yesterday’s results are good news for UKIP and nobody else.
The outcomes in both Clacton and in Heywood and Middleton confirm a pattern which has become increasingly evident to students of electoral behaviour over the past couple of years. UKIP is uniquely placed to appeal to voters in both southern counties and in northern towns. Certainly, there are areas where UKIP has struggled to break through, notably Greater London, Scotland and the central cores of England’s big cities. But UKIP’s mission to displace the Liberal Democrats as the third party is now well advanced.
Very worst fears
There are signs that the penny has dropped, at least for the Tories, who have begun to adopt the mind games so beloved of football managers, claiming that yesterday’s results are actually better for their primary rival, since they put Labour in pole position. For both main parties, however, these by-elections in what were previously seen, respectively, as a safe Conservative and a safe Labour seat, should confirm their very worst fears. UKIP stands in the way of a parliamentary majority, or possibly even a viable coalition, after the 2015 General Election.
Until relatively recently, the script for the 2015 General Election appeared to have been written, and it was a broadly familiar one. Both of the main parties could count on winning hundreds of safe seats each and the electoral battle would be won or lost in a smaller number of key marginal seats.
The decline in Liberal Democrat support, and the wrecking tactics of Labour and the Liberal Democrats on the Bill to introduce parliamentary boundary changes, tipped the balance in Labour’s favour. These factors, together with Labour’s assumption that UKIP support could only serve to harm the Tories, made the main opposition party complacent about their electoral strategy, and particularly the UKIP threat.
Events this year have changed the calculus fundamentally. UKIP’s success at the European elections enabled them to claim, with some legitimacy, that it was the first time anyone other than Labour or the Conservatives had won a UK-wide election since 1906. The Scottish independence referendum has left the Scottish Labour party seriously weakened and the Scottish National Party stronger than ever, raising the prospect that Labour could actually lose a significant number of safe seats in Scotland.
Meanwhile, UKIP has shown that fighting the next general election one by-election at a time suits them perfectly. Not only does the party now have an MP, but they have chalked up eight second places in by-elections since 2010, in areas as diverse as Barnsley Central, Rotherham, Middlesbrough, Eastleigh, South Shields, Wythenshawe and Sale East, Newark and, now, Heywood and Middleton.
Each of these by-elections has helped boost UKIP’s funding drive, its membership, its media coverage and, crucially, the party’s collective self-belief.
Douglas Carswell’s victory, by a huge margin, will embolden other would-be defectors and will greatly enhance his own chances of holding Clacton for UKIP in 2015. All eyes now turn to Rochester and Strood, where Mark Reckless’s chances of winning a second parliamentary seat for UKIP have been boosted significantly.
Rochester and Strood
Rochester and Strood presents a major test for both of the main parties. The Conservatives must win if they are to prevent further defections (of MPs, members, donors and lifelong supporters at the ballot box). And, this close to a general election, Labour must now also demonstrate its ability to counter the relentless rise of UKIP.
A full general election campaign will still be an enormous challenge for UKIP and they will need to target their efforts carefully. Yet, UKIP will enter the election better resourced than any challenger to the ‘big three’ in living memory and their capacity to change constituency-level outcomes by grabbing 15-25% of the votes in key seats will matter just as much as their potential to win further seats outright. For both Labour and the Conservatives, this is unknown electoral territory.”
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