Jon Tonge is Professor of Politics in the University of Liverpool’s Department of Politics
The main party conference season is over and we are approaching the end of a dramatic political year. So what, if anything, did we learn from the conferences? The Liberal Democrats (remember them?) assembled in Bournemouth for a gathering potentially resembling a Dignitas convention. However, like Labour, the Liberal Democrats could boast a new leader, elected with a decisive mandate from an increased membership.
Indeed Tim Farron launched the post-Clegg era with an interesting, well-crafted speech, for the handful watching on the Daily Politics or BBC Parliament. For someone previously seen as coalition-sceptic, he offered a stout defence of the Liberal Democrats’ role in the 2010-15 alliance with the Conservatives. Farron highlighted the party’s achievements in office, not least the raising of tax thresholds for the low paid. Unsurprisingly for a leader desperate to forge a new start, Farron did not dwell on the university tuition fees promise which doomed his party.
The General Election had seen the Liberal Democrats offer touching, misplaced faith in incumbency – the importance of their sitting MPs. At least that vanity will not be a problem in 2020. Farron offered a vision of Liberal Democrat rebuilding through local council wins – the party lost more than half its council seat whilst in government – but was hazy regarding the means.
Labour gathered in Brighton, but not for long in the case of a few former Shadow Cabinet members still incredulous over the party’s choice of new leader. Jeremy Corbyn arrived with a big internal mandate which makes notions of challenge fanciful. If half of Labour members – and an even higher percentage of affiliates – backed Corbyn, where does the Right of the party think the fertile ground for an unseating lies?
Corbyn’s speech – which began brightly and wittily but faded – confirmed what we already know. He is no orator, possesses a genteel manner, holds a considerable interest in foreign policy and has no idea how is going to attract many of the 11.3 million Conservative or 3.9 million UKIP voters at the last election. The strategy appears to be mobilise non-voters, although the problem there lies in the ‘non’. They tend to be serial abstentionists: 80% of non-voters in one election repeat the bad habit in the next, so whilst the remaining 20% may still be a biggish pool in which to fish, they need a more definitive and irresistible bait than the mere promise of a kinder, gentler and less austere politics.
Last but by no means least, the Conservatives arrived in triumph in Manchester, on the back of a famous election victory which few of the delegates truly expected. Delegates only made up a minority of conference attendees, a fact lost on the assortment of protestors outside who were, I can personally testify, at very close and testy quarters with those arriving at the event (I was there in a media capacity but was still ‘scum’ apparently).
Fresh from a triumph he does not have to attempt to repeat in 2020, Cameron gave a relaxed, moderately effective, speech which pitched towards the centre ground and demanded a more inclusive and compassionate party. This was worth doing, given that surveys showed the Conservatives won the election despite their image. Two-thirds of the public believed that the party cared mainly for the rich and powerful, but that negative was outweighed last May by the large numbers who preferred the Conservatives on the issues of leadership and economic competence.
Cameron said remarkably little, however, about the issue which will dominate politics for the next eighteen month and may split his own Cabinet: the EU referendum. Whilst he was hardly expected to reveal his negotiating hand at party conference, the fringe was dominated by EU discussions and the studious avoidance of detail in the leader’s speech was unsatisfactory.
And so the conference season ended, except for the lucky few of us who have to do the Northern Ireland ones. Roll on next year which will offer even greater local interest. Labour’s conference will be in Liverpool. Book early.
