A new collaborative initiative between Estonia and the United Kingdom will develop an innovative wargaming framework aimed at improving how institutions respond to hybrid threats and disinformation. The nine-month project is funded by the UKRI NetworkPlus for Analytical Behavioural Science in Security and Defence (NABS+). It is led by the University of Liverpool in partnership with the Johan Skytte Institute of Political Studies, University of Tartu and will include academia and practitioners in the UK and Estonia in the field of security studies, disinformation and international relations.
Entitled Prioritising Hybrid Threats: Wargaming Disinformation for Strategic Resilience, the project addresses the growing complexity of hybrid interference, where coordinated information manipulation and other non-military measures are used to destabilise societies and influence decision-making. To tackle this challenge, the research team will create a modular, scenario-based wargame that replicates institutional decision-making under crisis conditions.
The design of the simulation draws on Estonia’s experience during the 2007 Bronze Night events, treated as a “near miss” case in which misjudged priorities could have led to escalation, strategic setbacks, or reputational harm. Building on this analysis, the wargame scenarios will require participants to assess evolving threats, allocate limited resources, and justify their choices while operating under pressure and uncertainty.
The Estonian – British collaboration could not be timelier in the new geopolitical reality shaped by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the rapidly eroding rules-based international order. In this environment, hybrid and kinetic threats increasingly overlap and intertwine, with disinformation campaigns targeting both Estonian and British societies with growing frequency. At the same time, the Baltic region has gained greater strategic importance for the United Kingdom, as reflected in the significant British military presence in Estonia as part of NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence.
“Our approach integrates behavioural science and participatory design to ensure that the wargame captures the full sociotechnical complexity of hybrid campaigns – from public perception and media dynamics to governmental crisis management and organisational inertia,” said the project’s local coordinator at the University of Tartu – Dr. Stefano Braghiroli. “At the same time, we place particular emphasis on de-prioritisation as a strategic choice. Understanding when and how institutions decide not to respond to ambiguous or low-level threats is just as important as decisive action. In volatile information environments, restraint can be critical for effective resource allocation and for avoiding unnecessary escalation.”
Professor Simeon Yates and Dr Alex Hardy from the University of Liverpool said: “The DMSI team is excited to be working on this project with colleagues at Tartu (Estonia) and Lancaster. The focus of work on dis-/mis-/mal-information campaigns focuses on the platforms and technologies. This project explores how policymakers, local and national governments, and organisations can better prepare for such campaigns. The output will be a scenario ‘game’ to help stakeholders think through how such campaigns unfold and how best to prepare for, address, and respond to them. The work builds on our developing expertise in the DMSI on the use of creative (serious play) methods in the area of digital policy.”
The final wargame will be designed for flexibility across different national and institutional contexts and elaborated by experts’ sessions held both in Estonia and the UK. It will be released as an open-access tool, supported by detailed guidance and scenario documentation to facilitate its integration into training, policy development, and operational planning.
Through this partnership, the project seeks to enhance strategic resilience by refining how organisations evaluate, prioritise, and manage hybrid threats in an increasingly complex security landscape.
This project is supported by the UKRI NetworkPlus for Analytical Behavioural Science
in Security and Defence (NABS+)